Metaculus
Claim this toolAggregate probabilistic forecasts for science, tech, and world events
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Tracked since2026
What is Metaculus?
Metaculus is a forecasting platform, not a betting market: forecasters make probabilistic predictions on science, technology and world events, and the platform aggregates them into a community forecast with a strong published track record. No money changes hands; reputation and scoring drive participation. Widely used as a reference for AI-timeline and geopolitical forecasts, and by researchers studying forecast aggregation.
Key Features
Probabilistic community forecastingPublished track record and calibrationNo-money reputation and scoring systemReference source for AI and geopolitical timelines
Pricing
Free
Metaculus is completely free to use with no hidden costs.
Reviews
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Metaculus FAQ
How does Metaculus support research and science applications?
Metaculus aggregates probabilistic forecasts from a community of forecasters on science and technology topics, providing a community forecast with a strong published track record. Researchers can use these forecasts as a reference for studying forecast aggregation or for estimating timelines in areas like AI development.
What are the main limitations of using Metaculus for forecasting?
Metaculus is a forecasting platform that does not involve real money; participation is driven by reputation and scoring rather than financial stakes. This may limit engagement for users seeking monetary incentives or betting-style markets.
Which teams benefit most from using Metaculus?
Research teams, policy analysts, and organizations that need probabilistic estimates for long-term trends, such as AI timelines or geopolitical risks, benefit most from Metaculus. It provides a structured, community-driven forecast with a verified track record that supports decision-making.
How is Metaculus priced?
Metaculus is free to use with no paid plan required, allowing anyone to participate in forecasting and access the aggregated predictions without a subscription fee.
How does Metaculus aggregate individual forecasts into a community prediction?
Metaculus uses a scoring system that weights forecasts based on the forecaster's track record and accuracy, combining them into a single community forecast. This aggregated prediction is continuously updated as new forecasts are submitted.
Can researchers use Metaculus data for their own studies?
Yes, researchers studying forecast aggregation and prediction markets can use Metaculus's published track record and community forecasts as a data source. The platform provides a structured dataset for analyzing the accuracy and calibration of crowd-sourced probabilistic predictions.
Does Metaculus provide forecasts on specific topics like AI or geopolitics?
Metaculus includes forecasts on a wide range of topics, with particular strength in AI timelines and geopolitical events. It is used as a reference source for these domains by analysts and researchers.
How does the reputation system work on Metaculus?
Metaculus assigns reputation scores to forecasters based on the accuracy of their predictions over time. These scores determine how much weight each forecaster's predictions carry in the aggregated community forecast.
Source: metaculus.com